{
  "demo": false,
  "label": "Scénario statistique de prix spot",
  "market": "France",
  "timezone": "Europe/Paris",
  "currency": "EUR/MWh",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-01T22:00:48.850277+00:00",
  "model_version": "hpfc-historical-day-analogue-v2",
  "last_published_delivery": "2026-10-31T22:00:00+00:00",
  "last_observed_delivery": "2026-10-31T22:00:00+00:00",
  "source": "Energy-Charts.info / Fraunhofer ISE; Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de — CC BY 4.0",
  "provenance": {
    "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T22:00:48.850277+00:00",
    "attribution": "Energy-Charts.info / Fraunhofer ISE; Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de",
    "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "source_url": "https://api.energy-charts.info/v2/price",
    "upstream_snapshot": "https://github.com/salelas-debug/intelas-energy-tools/blob/preview/real-spot-2026-11-01/public/hourly.csv",
    "upstream_blob_sha": "63eebfba6d8a6a7f55eef57123a5d4e7ebcc5f1e",
    "observed_csv_sha256": "19dcbc60c38d1d4718af21fe65fa222bd5b320aa9c3ed01ec7e6634d54a1d2ed",
    "transformation": "Only observed rows extracted from validated private preview; all synthetic future rows discarded. Upstream: hourly means of 15-minute prices from 2025-10-01; UTC physical delivery hours."
  },
  "mean_2025": 61.073672659817355,
  "observed_hours": 16056,
  "day_ahead_published_hours": 0,
  "fixed_hours": 16056,
  "delivery_status_as_of_utc": "2026-11-01T22:00:48.850277+00:00",
  "forecast_hours": 10224,
  "forward_enabled": false,
  "forward": {},
  "backtest": [
    {
      "origin": "2026-01-01",
      "train_end_utc": "2025-12-31T22:00:00+00:00",
      "test_end_utc": "2026-03-31T22:00:00+00:00",
      "hours": 2160,
      "mae_eur_mwh": 45.500766185565254,
      "rmse_eur_mwh": 56.98548345554331,
      "bias_eur_mwh": 29.13750021125825,
      "level_error_eur_mwh": 29.137500211258256,
      "shape_mae_eur_mwh": 40.72935891314679,
      "seasonal_baseline_mae_eur_mwh": 45.45993953339301
    },
    {
      "origin": "2026-04-01",
      "train_end_utc": "2026-03-31T21:00:00+00:00",
      "test_end_utc": "2026-06-29T21:00:00+00:00",
      "hours": 2160,
      "mae_eur_mwh": 55.27942766165081,
      "rmse_eur_mwh": 67.1352539771122,
      "bias_eur_mwh": -47.10931788833092,
      "level_error_eur_mwh": -47.10931788833091,
      "shape_mae_eur_mwh": 34.73922910085945,
      "seasonal_baseline_mae_eur_mwh": 37.786222021251
    },
    {
      "origin": "2026-07-01",
      "train_end_utc": "2026-06-30T21:00:00+00:00",
      "test_end_utc": "2026-09-28T21:00:00+00:00",
      "hours": 2160,
      "mae_eur_mwh": 59.01301383082375,
      "rmse_eur_mwh": 72.93062665504927,
      "bias_eur_mwh": -51.952636979918225,
      "level_error_eur_mwh": -51.952636979918225,
      "shape_mae_eur_mwh": 40.75968911410816,
      "seasonal_baseline_mae_eur_mwh": 72.68882875577275
    },
    {
      "origin": "2026-10-01",
      "train_end_utc": "2026-09-30T21:00:00+00:00",
      "test_end_utc": "2026-10-31T22:00:00+00:00",
      "hours": 745,
      "mae_eur_mwh": 64.93520441269918,
      "rmse_eur_mwh": 75.18176827891138,
      "bias_eur_mwh": -37.05582190752359,
      "level_error_eur_mwh": -37.05582190752358,
      "shape_mae_eur_mwh": 52.77222412559429,
      "seasonal_baseline_mae_eur_mwh": 112.16433787434934
    }
  ],
  "futures_calibrated_hours": 0,
  "disclaimer": "Scénario statistique fondé sur les historiques licenciés 2025–2026, sans cotation forward. Les prix futurs ne sont pas certains. Le modèle ne prédit pas les chocs, la météo ou les changements structurels. Le spot seul exclut réseau, taxes, marge et services du fournisseur."
}